Drought

You are here

In Ethiopia, rainfall is the main driver of national economy in different sectors, including agriculture and energy (Conway and Shipper, 2010). The LEAP service aims at anticipating the occurrence of persistent droughts affecting water availability throughout the crop season. The LEAP framework has been designed to assess the impact of the shortfalls of rainfall on agricultural droughts. The crop model adopted in LEAP, is based on the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). It aims at monitoring the effect of lacking water during the critical stages of the growth cycle (e.g. planting, flowering), using different satellite rainfall estimate products. The prototype developed during EUPORIAS uses seasonal forecasts ensemble products as an input to the drought assessment platform. Such forecasts are not expected to carry reliable information on the occurrence of short living dry-spells, e.g. one or two weeks with no rainfall at specific times during the crop cycle. Rather, seasonal forecasts are expected to provide skillful information on the seasonal accumulated rainfall. This information can be used, in combination with observed data, to forecast the outcome of the crop season and prepare early responses to possible failures.

 

About

LEAP is the Government of Ethiopia’s national food security early warning system. It provides estimates of the number of people who will be in need of food assistance due to drought, increasing the speed with which a humanitarian response can be triggered.